There is a burgeoning literature on the future of higher education. Higher education is expanding but the necessaty funding is not forthcoming and quality is threatened. Is distance education the right choice? - in particular distance education by global providers using new technology? Or are these global providers a threat? The right choice of strategy is problematic because the concept of choice itself is problematic. Four viewpoints are considered: individual rational choice, choice under obscurity, social rational choice and social choice under obscurity. The notion of choice under obscurity is illustrated by considering a discussion paper by the chair of the UK Council of Vice-Chancellors and Principals. The paper addresses the complex strategic question: how much of what to how many of whom at what level in what time-scale at what intensity at what life stage by what means with what certification with what status? ... with what consequences? ... why? The means considered cover: funding, governance, institutional structure, staff, distance education, information technology and globalisation. The consequences considered cover well-being and capabilities. It is important to recognise that strategy in this context involves social choice under obscurity.